Portfolio · 2025.07 to 2026.09

Made in Asia

GMECS organises training programmes, industry events, study tours and German pavilions. It also provides services to member companies in China.

Selected work

Eight news reports on production, capital and competition across Asia
01 / 08

No deal in Beijing: machinery caught in the middle

2025.07.24BeijingBreaking news

The 25th EU-China Summit ended without a trade breakthrough. For machinery producers, the official statements made the next points of conflict clearer: market access, industrial capacity and critical raw materials.

Xi Jinping meets European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa in Beijing

EU and Chinese leaders meet in Beijing on 24 July 2025. Photo: Christophe Licoppe / European Union via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0. The page uses a cropped version. Source and licence

The Beijing meeting on 24 July produced no major agreement. Its value lay in the gap between the two official accounts. The EU concentrated on trade imbalances, market access, industrial capacity and export controls. China defended economic complementarity and openness, and called for balance through development. The dispute was no longer hidden behind diplomatic language. European Council China's Foreign Ministry

Why machinery companies felt the pressure first

The political argument rests on a large commercial imbalance. Two-way goods trade reached about €730 billion in 2024, while the EU recorded a €305 billion goods deficit with China. That figure is not a measure of losses in the machinery sector, but it shapes policy. If officials treat the imbalance as structural, anti-subsidy cases and local-content rules are more likely to become routine. Public procurement and market access will face closer scrutiny as well.

For equipment makers, rare earths and permanent magnets are production inputs rather than diplomatic abstractions. They sit inside servo motors, industrial robots, wind turbines and precision drives. One more export licence can delay an entire machine, even when the raw material cost barely changes. Procurement teams therefore need alternative suppliers, larger buffers and clear contract terms for late delivery.

Fair competition comes with a higher operating bill

VDMA's China position paper asks for fairer competition while it continues to describe China as an important market. German manufacturers now have to fund both positions. Compliance work, data controls, export rules and supply-chain records all add cost. For a smaller Mittelstand company, one regulatory change may require fresh certification, a revised software interface or a second version of the same machine. VDMA China position paper

The summit did not reduce risk. It showed companies where the cost is likely to rise.

For GMECS, the useful work begins after the press conference. Companies need standards lists, compliance notes and sector updates that translate political disputes into decisions for procurement teams, engineers, sales managers and boards.

02 / 08

ASEAN's $44bn manufacturing surge

2025.10.27Kuala Lumpur / JakartaInvestment and supply chains

ASEAN's latest investment report complicates the familiar story of factories leaving China. New capacity in Southeast Asia often extends a production system that still depends on Chinese suppliers, equipment and technical support.

Leaders at the 2025 ASEAN Summit

Leaders at the 13th US-ASEAN Summit on 26 October 2025. Photo: The White House / Wikimedia Commons, CC0. The page removes the upper and lower background areas. Source and licence

The ASEAN Secretariat and UN Trade and Development report that ASEAN attracted $226 billion in foreign direct investment in 2024. The total rose by 8 per cent, but manufacturing grew much faster. Investment in the sector jumped from $18 billion to $44 billion, a rise of 147 per cent. Cars, electronics and semiconductors led the increase. These industries need deep supplier networks, expensive equipment and skilled engineers. ASEAN / UNCTAD

China's own figures show who financed part of that expansion. Direct investment flows to ASEAN reached $34.365 billion in 2024, up 36.8 per cent. The manufacturing share rose by 68.2 per cent to $15.39 billion, or 44.8 per cent of the total. Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam and Singapore received much of the industrial investment. China ODI bulletin

Companies are buying a second delivery base, not cheap land

Labour cost alone does not determine where a company builds its next plant. Thailand has a mature automotive network. Indonesia pairs nickel reserves with rules that favour domestic processing. Malaysia and Vietnam draw electronics and semiconductor projects through engineering talent, established suppliers and trade access. Each country competes for a different section of the value chain. None offers a full copy of China's production system.

A new factory does not automatically make a supply chain safer. The company may have to hold two inventories, audit two supplier bases and manage two sets of customs and origin rules. If the new plant still buys moulds, core components and automation equipment from China, logistics become longer. If it switches to local suppliers, quality checks start again. Diversification usually raises cost before it reduces exposure.

A sales opportunity, and a test of service capacity

Customer expansion creates orders for machines, upgrades and training. The harder question is whether German suppliers can support those machines after delivery. Spare-parts locations, engineer response times and national rules on remote maintenance now influence the value of a contract. The equipment sale opens the account; regional service determines whether it remains profitable.

A move to Southeast Asia does not erase China from the supply chain. It leaves companies with two operating maps to manage.

As Chinese customers and German companies in China expand across Southeast Asia, they need more than macroeconomic reports. They need current information on standards, potential partners and local service capacity in each destination. Capital can move quickly. Equipment and technical support cannot.

03 / 08

China + 1: Why factories still depend on China

2026.01.12China and Southeast AsiaSupply-chain feature

China + 1 is often described as relocation. In practice, companies tend to add capacity while the original Chinese plant, supplier base and engineering team remain part of the system.

Steel-coil inventory at a metal manufacturer in Shandong

Steel-coil inventory at a metal manufacturer in Shandong in September 2025. Photo: Shandong Mingtong Metal Manufacturing / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0. The page uses a cropped version. Source and licence

The shorthand suggests a clean transfer: close a line in China and reopen it in Vietnam, Thailand or Indonesia. The data point to a different pattern. UNIDO estimates that China produced 32 per cent of global manufacturing output in 2024, more than the United States, Japan, Germany and South Korea combined. ASEAN manufacturing FDI rose to almost two and a half times its previous level in the same year. Southeast Asia gained capacity while China retained industrial scale. UNIDO 2025 Yearbook AIR 2025

Why the China operation cannot move as one block

A design change to one machine can affect castings, sensors, controllers, moulds and surface treatment at once. Nearby suppliers shorten the test cycle, while close links between factories, customers and research teams move shop-floor problems back to product engineers quickly. China's scale also supports highly specialised suppliers. Intense local competition keeps pressure on quotations, prototypes and delivery times. A company cannot pack these relationships into crates and move them with the production line.

China's manufacturing base also continued to grow. The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 6.4 per cent rise in manufacturing value added in 2025. Equipment manufacturing increased by 9.2 per cent and accounted for 36.8 per cent of value added at large industrial companies. New investment abroad did not stop expansion at home. China statistical bulletin

The +1 strategy buys flexibility

A second production base gives companies more control over where they serve North America, Europe and ASEAN. A Chinese plant can focus on domestic customers while a Southeast Asian site handles regional orders. That flexibility is expensive. Two factories need separate quality systems and management teams, and they put more stock in transit.

A German Chamber flash survey in May 2026 found that 61 per cent of respondents planned to increase investment in China over the next two years. Only 11 per cent planned a reduction. The member survey cannot represent every foreign company, but it shows that investment in China can continue alongside expansion in Southeast Asia. German Chamber flash survey

China + 1 adds an independent production node without cutting the link to China.

The model also changes what customers expect from German machinery suppliers. Price still matters, but customers also want the same process to work in Suzhou, Ho Chi Minh City and Rayong. The supplier now sells repeatable performance across several factories, not one machine to one site.

04 / 08

German machinery firms rethink their China strategy

2026.04.10Frankfurt / ShanghaiMarkets

German machinery makers face weaker exports, fiercer local rivals and a Chinese market that remains too large to ignore. Their China strategy now starts with competition rather than growth.

Modern robotic car-body welding cell at the Chemnitz Museum of Industry

A modern robotic car-body welding cell at the Chemnitz Museum of Industry. Photo: Norbert Kaiser / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0. The page shows the complete original image. Source and licence

The reassessment goes beyond one weak quarter. German machinery exports to China have fallen, price competition inside China has intensified and Chinese suppliers now challenge German companies in third markets. Each trend puts pressure on the same profit and loss account.

Figures from the Federal Statistical Office show that Germany exported €12.6 billion of machinery to China from January to September 2025, a year-on-year fall of 10.7 per cent. Eurostat later reported that full-year EU exports to China fell by 6.5 per cent while imports rose by 6.4 per cent. Machinery, mechanical appliances and parts remained the EU's largest export category to China at €45.3 billion. Imports in the same broad category reached €106.5 billion. Destatis Eurostat

A higher price no longer guarantees a stronger offer

The German Chamber's 2025/26 survey covered 627 German companies in China. Price pressure was the leading macroeconomic concern for 60 per cent of respondents. Weak demand followed at 52 per cent, while 32 per cent identified the Buy China trend as a regulatory challenge. Machinery producers now face a product decision: export a highly specified machine from Germany, or design a cheaper model in China with a shorter lead time. German Chamber BCS 2025/26

A stripped-down European machine rarely solves the problem. Daniel Yoo of VDMA China has argued that fewer features do not make an imported design competitive by themselves. Chinese buyers compare the purchase price with lead time, software updates, spare-parts response and the supplier's willingness to develop products jointly. Localisation has moved into product strategy and research responsibility. It is no longer a sourcing exercise.

Competition is rising, but so is cooperation

The same survey found that 56 per cent of companies were considering deeper cooperation with Chinese partners. Sixty per cent expected Chinese companies to become innovation leaders in their sectors. German firms therefore face a more complicated choice than stay or leave. They must decide which technologies remain at headquarters, which products China teams develop, which customers need support in Southeast Asia and where components need a second source.

The question is whether the old model can still make money: research at headquarters, production in Germany and sales to the world.
05 / 08

Why the German Mittelstand still needs China

2026.09.30Shanghai / BeijingBusiness feature

Germany's Mittelstand built its reputation on specialised engineering and patient investment. In China, technical quality is no longer enough. Speed, local authority and direct access to customers now matter just as much.

Siemens digital native factory in Nanjing

The Siemens digital native factory in Nanjing joined the World Economic Forum Global Lighthouse Network in 2026. Photo: Siemens AG, for editorial use only. The page uses a cropped version. News and image source

Mittelstand is often translated as Germany's small and medium-sized business sector, but size is only part of the definition. Many of these companies remain under long-term family ownership and lead a narrow technical niche. A packaging line, a pump or a measurement system can carry decades of engineering reputation. Such firms are cautious about fashion, but China is too important to treat as a passing trend.

China returned to first place among Germany's goods-trade partners in 2025, with bilateral trade worth €251.8 billion. The Bundesbank recorded about €3.5 billion in German direct investment flows to China, more than in either of the previous two years. Most of the money came from profits that local operations reinvested, rather than fresh capital from Germany. Companies are allowing their China businesses to finance local growth while headquarters limit new exposure. Destatis Bundesbank

China is both customer and product manager

For a specialist machinery company, the greatest risk is not one poor sales year. It is losing direct contact with customer demand. Chinese factories now expect shorter lead times, more automation and a lower total cost of ownership. If headquarters treats China as a sales territory, those requirements travel through several reporting layers before they reach the product roadmap. A local competitor may complete two design cycles before the German company approves one change.

China teams now need authority as well as market knowledge. They must separate temporary local preferences from demands that may spread worldwide. At the same time, they have to defend the safety, reliability and life-cycle economics that justify a German machine's price. China remains a source of revenue, but it also tests products against some of the industry's toughest competition.

German suppliers follow Chinese customers abroad

The German Chamber's September 2026 report, From China to Global, describes a new route to overseas business. German suppliers can win Chinese customers at home and support them later in Southeast Asia, the Middle East or Europe. The qualitative study drew on 11 interviews, so it does not establish a market-wide share. It does show how a local China relationship can become a regional account. From China to Global

That account may span several legal systems. The contract can be signed in China, the equipment installed in Thailand, the payment settled through Singapore and the remote diagnostics supplied from Germany. For a Mittelstand company, the constraint is organisational capacity rather than demand. A limited pool of engineers, spare parts and decision rights has to cover the region. Regional service hubs and standard delivery processes are more realistic than a full team in every country.

China now influences where customers expand, how fast products change and how far service teams must travel.

GMECS gives headquarters direct evidence through industry roundtables, company visits and member networks. A November 2025 visit to Siemens' digital factory in Chengdu examined the use of digital twins, artificial intelligence, 5G and edge computing on one production line. A June 2026 tour of Guangzhou's low-altitude economy introduced members to Chinese equipment makers and their commercial progress. These visits give investment, partnership and product decisions a firmer basis than a general market-potential report. Chengdu visit Guangzhou visit

06 / 08

Where China's $34bn in ASEAN investment goes

2026.06.30Static chartCountry comparison

Chinese investment reaches ASEAN through several routes. The country totals reflect financial hubs and headquarters as well as car plants, resource processing and electronics production.

Container terminal in Singapore

Container terminal in Singapore. Photo: CEphoto, Uwe Aranas / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0. The page uses a cropped version. Source and licence

The chart tracks destinations in China's outward-investment accounts. It does not count factory relocations. Chinese ODI to ASEAN reached $34.365 billion in 2024, and manufacturing received $15.39 billion. Singapore ranked first at $17.888 billion, but the total also covers finance, wholesale trade, business services and holding structures. It is not a direct measure of investment in physical plants. Ministry of Commerce bulletin

The ranking makes more sense when read as a map of regional functions. Singapore is a capital and management hub. Thailand anchors automotive and electric-vehicle supply chains. Indonesia links minerals, metals processing and batteries. Vietnam hosts electronics and a broader range of manufacturing, while Malaysia has a mature semiconductor base. The country values come from China's official flow data. The sector analysis also draws on the ASEAN Investment Report.

ASEAN recorded $19.3 billion in FDI from China in 2024. That figure differs from China's ODI total because the two systems apply different directions, ownership rules and valuation methods. The chart keeps them separate rather than calculating a misleading difference or share.

07 / 08

Five numbers behind Asia's factory shift

2026.07.22Brussels / ASEANData journalism

Southeast Asia has added industrial capacity without displacing China. European machinery companies now face a denser production network, a larger regional market and stronger Asian competitors.

Container terminal at Shanghai Yangshan Deep-Water Port

Container terminal at Shanghai Yangshan Deep-Water Port. Photo: Bruno Corpet / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0. The page uses a cropped version. Source and licence

ASEAN FDI
$226bn
Manufacturing FDI
$44bn
China ODI to ASEAN
$34.36bn

A rise in FDI does not prove that Southeast Asia has replaced China. Industrial location depends on output, cross-border investment, trade and the way companies allocate capacity. Read together, those measures show an established manufacturing centre with more regional nodes around it.

China remains the centre, with more production links abroad

UNIDO estimates that China produced 32 per cent of global manufacturing output in 2024. Separate VDMA data put China's share of world machinery exports at 20.3 per cent, against 14.0 per cent for Germany. The measures are not directly comparable, but each points to China's scale, supplier density and export strength. Chinese ODI to ASEAN reached $34.365 billion in the same year, with $15.39 billion directed to manufacturing. Investment abroad can expand a production network without hollowing out its Chinese base.

Southeast Asia gains capacity and a clearer division of labour

ASEAN received $226 billion in FDI in 2024, of which $44 billion went to manufacturing. The sector was not the largest destination for capital, but it grew the fastest. Car, electronics, semiconductor and garment projects went to different countries. Southeast Asia now has several specialised production centres rather than a single low-cost assembly base. UNCTAD / ASEAN

Europe faces a different competitor, not a cheaper copy of China

China exported about €49 billion of machinery products to the EU in 2025, up 14.8 per cent from a year earlier. Under a broader HS category, EU imports of machinery, mechanical appliances and parts from China reached €106.5 billion. The definitions differ, but both series show that Chinese competition has reached the European market. The EU goods deficit with China rose to €98 billion in the first quarter of 2026, the highest quarterly figure since the third quarter of 2022. Eurostat

German machinery companies now have three jobs. They need faster product decisions in China, stronger service coverage in Southeast Asia and a clearer case for premium equipment in Europe. Energy use, reliability and total life-cycle cost will determine whether that premium survives.

Asia still has a manufacturing centre. It now has more production nodes and far more connections between them.
08 / 08

Waste, water and the next beverage investment cycle

2025.06.13Original multimedia report

Beverage producers now treat energy, water and material use as production costs, not side issues.

Industrial beverage production equipment featured in the original multimedia report

The opening visual comes from the original Chinese mobile feature on drinktec 2025 and circular resource use.

This Chinese multimedia feature previewed drinktec 2025 through a GEA case study. I edited the copy and video, built the visual sequence and prepared the story for mobile publication.

Resource efficiency becomes an operating decision

The report looks at how beverage producers manage energy demand, water reuse, material recovery and equipment upgrades. Each choice affects environmental targets and the cost of running a production line.

GEA company profile

GEA supplies systems and components to food, beverage and pharmaceutical producers. Founded in 1881, the company sells machinery, process technology, components and life-cycle services. It entered China in the 1950s and now has its regional headquarters in Shanghai, with major production sites in Tianjin and Suzhou.

This English edition adapts the original Chinese mobile story. It retains the videos, visuals and company material from that production.

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Manufacturing / Asia
Portfolio · 2025.07 至 2026.09

制造业的亚洲新坐标

GMECS 的在华业务包括行业活动、培训、考察团、德国展团与会员企业服务。

报道目录

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01 / 08

中欧峰会把“失衡”摆上桌:机械制造业先听见回声

2025.07.24北京即时新闻

第 25 次中国与欧盟领导人会晤没有发布一份包罗万象的经贸协议,却把制造业最关心的三个词推到台前:市场准入、过剩产能与关键原材料。

习近平与欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩、欧洲理事会主席科斯塔在北京会晤

2025 年 7 月 24 日,北京中欧领导人会晤。图片:Christophe Licoppe / European Union,经 Wikimedia Commons,CC BY 4.0;页面裁切显示。来源与授权

7 月 24 日的北京,会议桌上没有出现一份能让工业企业立刻松口气的“大协议”。第 25 次中国与欧盟领导人会晤结束后,双方发布的文字更像两张不同角度拍摄的照片:欧方强调失衡、市场准入、产能与出口管制;中方强调互补、开放和通过发展实现动态平衡。分歧没有被藏起来,这本身就是当天最重要的消息。欧盟理事会 中国外交部

为什么机械制造业先感到震动

欧方给出的背景数字是:2024 年中欧双边货物贸易额约 7300 亿欧元,欧盟对华货物逆差 3050 亿欧元。这个逆差不等于机械行业的“亏损”,却会改变政策气候。当贸易不平衡被定义为结构性问题,反补贴调查、本地化要求、公共采购与市场准入就可能成为常态,不再只是偶发摩擦。

稀土和永磁体对设备企业也不是抽象的外交名词。它们进入伺服电机、工业机器人、风电设备和精密驱动系统。出口许可多一道程序,受影响的可能不是原料价格,而是整台设备能否按期交付。供应链经理必须重新盘点第二来源、库存周期和合同里的延期责任。

“公平竞争”之后,是更昂贵的运营

VDMA 的中国立场文件要求更公平的竞争环境,同时仍把中国视为重要市场。这两项判断可以同时成立。企业先感受到的是成本结构变化:过去把资源集中在销售和售后,现在还要增加合规、数据、出口管制和供应链追踪。对规模有限的 Mittelstand 来说,一项新规则可能意味着重新认证、重写软件接口,甚至为同一台机器维护两个版本。VDMA 中国立场文件

峰会没有替企业消除风险,但它把未来几年最昂贵的风险写得更清楚。

GMECS 这类在华服务接口要做的,是把宏观争议翻译成标准清单、合规提示、客户行业变化和可执行的市场信息。新闻发布会结束后,企业还要把一条政治新闻拆成采购、技术、销售和董事会都能读懂的任务表。

02 / 08

东南亚制造业吸金 440 亿美元,中国企业正在把产线向南延伸

2025.10.27吉隆坡 / 雅加达投资与供应链

ASEAN 最新投资报告给“供应链外移”加上了一个更准确的注脚:新增的是一张由中国与东南亚共同拉长的生产网络,而不是一座替代中国的工厂。

2025年东盟峰会领导人合影

2025 年 10 月 26 日,第 13 届美国与东盟峰会领导人合影。图片:The White House / Wikimedia Commons,CC0;页面裁去上下背景区域。来源与授权

东盟秘书处与联合国贸发会议发布的《ASEAN Investment Report 2025》把“产线南移”从印象变成了可量化的趋势。2024 年,东盟吸收外商直接投资 2260 亿美元,同比增长 8%;制造业 FDI 从 180 亿美元增至 440 亿美元,增幅 147%。增长最明显的不是低端加工,而是汽车、电子与半导体这些供应链长、设备投入大、对工程能力要求高的行业。ASEAN / UNCTAD

从中国一侧看,趋势更具体。商务部统计公报显示,2024 年中国对东盟直接投资流量 343.65 亿美元,同比增长 36.8%;其中制造业投资 153.9 亿美元,同比增长 68.2%,占全部流量的 44.8%。泰国、印度尼西亚、越南和新加坡是主要制造业目的地。中国 ODI 公报

企业买的不是“便宜土地”,而是第二种交付能力

企业在东南亚配置产能,并非沿着工资成本的单一排序逐级迁移,而是在产业集群、资源禀赋、政策激励、工程能力与市场准入之间权衡。泰国承接汽车项目,依托的是成熟的整车与零部件配套;印度尼西亚吸引电池产业链投资,关键在镍资源与本地加工政策;马来西亚和越南进入电子与半导体企业的选址清单,则与工程人才、供应商基础及贸易网络相关。因而,东南亚各经济体承接的是供应链中的差异化环节,并非对中国生产体系的整体复制。

这也意味着新工厂不会自动降低风险。企业可能同时承担两套库存、两套供应商审核、两套海关与原产地规则。若东南亚工厂仍从中国采购模具、核心部件和自动化设备,物流距离反而更长;若要求本地化采购,质量验证又要从头开始。所谓分散风险,第一阶段往往先增加复杂度和成本。

德国设备商的新机会,也是一场售后考验

对德国机械制造商来说,客户向南扩张会带来新设备、升级改造和培训需求。但真正决定订单能否持续的,是售后半径:备件仓放在中国、新加坡还是当地?工程师能否在两天内到厂?软件远程维护是否符合各国数据规定?一台设备卖出去只是开始,跨国服务网络才是利润能否留下来的关键。

“去东南亚”不是把中国划掉,而是把一张供应链地图变成两张必须同时维护的运营地图。

GMECS 的业务背景让这个选题有了落点:当中国客户与在华德企共同向东南亚延伸,企业需要的不只是宏观报告,而是目的地市场、技术标准、合作伙伴和当地服务能力的连续信息。资本先走一步,设备和服务必须跟上。

03 / 08

“China + 1”之后:制造业真的离开中国了吗?

2026.01.12中国与东南亚供应链特写

“+1”听上去像一道减法题。实际走进工厂,看到的却更像加法:一个采购中心、两条产线、三个港口,还有比过去更难管理的质量与交付。

山东一家金属制造企业的钢卷库存

2025 年 9 月,山东一家金属制造企业的钢卷库存。图片:Shandong Mingtong Metal Manufacturing / Wikimedia Commons,CC BY-SA 4.0;页面裁切显示。来源与授权

“China + 1”最容易被写成一道减法题:在中国关掉一条线,再去越南、泰国或印度尼西亚开一条线。可是宏观数据里看不到这种整齐的搬家。联合国工业发展组织估算,中国在 2024 年贡献全球制造业产出的 32%,超过美国、日本、德国与韩国之和;同年东盟制造业 FDI 又几乎增至原来的 2.5 倍。两个方向同时成立。UNIDO 2025 Yearbook AIR 2025

为什么中国环节很难整段搬走

一台设备改型,往往会同时牵动铸件、传感器、控制器、模具和表面处理。供应商离得近,试错就快;工厂、客户与研发在同一个市场,车间里的问题也能更快回到产品团队。中国的规模仍足以养活许多很窄的细分行业,而本地竞争又把报价、打样和交付周期压得很短。这几种能力互相咬合,很难逐件打包搬走。

中国国家统计局公布,2025 年制造业增加值增长 6.4%,其中装备制造业增长 9.2%,占规模以上工业增加值的 36.8%。数据里的中国制造业仍在扩张,只是企业把一部分新增投资放到了别处。中国统计公报

“+1”买来的是选择权

企业可以把面向北美、欧洲或东盟的新增产能放到不同节点,减少单一国家政策变化带来的冲击;也可以让中国基地继续服务本土客户,把东南亚基地用于区域交付。这份选择权要付费。两个工厂意味着两套质量体系、两组管理者和更多在途库存。

2026 年 5 月,德国商会的一次快速调查显示,61% 的受访企业计划在未来两年增加在华投资,计划减少的为 11%。这是一项会员调查,不代表所有外企,却说明“投资东南亚”与“继续投中国”并非二选一。German Chamber Flash Survey

“+1”给同一条供应链增加了一个可以独立运转、又仍与中国相连的节点。

对德国机械企业而言,竞争也因此改变。客户除了比较单机价格,还会追问同一套工艺能否在苏州、胡志明市和罗勇稳定复制。设备商交付的是硬件,也要交付跨工厂的一致性。

04 / 08

德国机械企业重新评估中国:风险该怎样重新定价

2026.04.10法兰克福 / 上海市场

一边是出口压力,一边是无法忽略的市场规模。德国机械制造商对中国的判断,正在从“增长故事”转向“竞争现场”。

德国开姆尼茨工业博物馆内的现代汽车车身焊接机器人生产单元

德国开姆尼茨工业博物馆展示的现代汽车车身焊接机器人单元。图片:Norbert Kaiser / Wikimedia Commons,CC BY-SA 4.0;原图完整显示。来源与授权

德国机械制造企业重新评估中国,原因并不在某一个突然变差的季度。出口在下降,本地价格竞争更激烈,中国竞争者也开始进入德国企业原本占优势的第三方市场。三种压力落在同一张损益表上。

德国联邦统计局数据显示,2025 年 1 至 9 月,德国对华机械出口同比下降 10.7%,至 126 亿欧元。Eurostat 随后公布的全年中欧贸易数据又显示,欧盟对华出口下降 6.5%,进口增长 6.4%;机械、机械器具及零部件仍是欧盟对华最大出口品类,金额 453 亿欧元,但同类产品从中国进口已达 1065 亿欧元。Destatis Eurostat

“贵”不再自动等于“更好”

德国商会 2025/26 年度调查覆盖 627 家在华德企。60% 把价格压力列为主要宏观挑战,52% 提到中国内需疲弱,32% 将“Buy China”趋势视为监管挑战。对机械企业来说,这些数字会落实为一场产品选择:继续从德国出口高配设备,还是为中国重新设计成本更低、交付更快的版本?German Chamber BCS 2025/26

简单“减配”往往行不通。VDMA China 的 Daniel Yoo 提醒,一台为中国市场缩减配置的欧洲机器很少有竞争力。中国客户会把采购价、交付周期、软件迭代、备件响应和共同开发能力放在一起比较。本地化因此进入产品决策和研发责任层面,远远超过更换几家本地供应商。

竞争者,也是合作对象

同一份德国商会调查里,56% 的企业考虑深化与中国伙伴的合作,60% 预计中国企业会成为其所在行业的创新领导者。压力和合作同时上升,说明企业不是在做“留或走”的单选题,而是在重新划线:哪些技术留在总部,哪些产品在中国研发,哪些客户跟随到东南亚,哪些供应商需要第二来源。

企业现在重估的,是“总部研发、德国制造、全球出口”这套分工还能不能继续赚钱。
05 / 08

德国 Mittelstand 在亚洲:
为什么中国仍然重要?

2026.09.30上海 / 北京企业特写

德国中型企业最擅长的,是把一项技术做深、做久。但在中国,产品做得好已经不够:交付速度、本地决策和贴近客户,正在重写“德国制造”的使用说明。

西门子南京数字原生工厂

西门子南京数字原生工厂,2026 年入选世界经济论坛“全球灯塔网络”。图片:Siemens AG;仅用于编辑用途,页面裁切显示。新闻与图片来源

Mittelstand 常被翻译成“德国中小企业”,但它描述的不只是规模。许多企业由家族长期控制,在一个极窄的工艺领域做到全球领先:一套包装线、一种泵、一台测量设备,可能是它几十年积累的全部声誉。这样的企业不习惯追逐每一个风口,却也很难忽视中国。

2025 年,中国重新成为德国最大的货物贸易伙伴,双边货物贸易额 2518 亿欧元。德国央行数据显示,德国对华直接投资流量约 35 亿欧元,高于此前两年;但这笔资金主要来自在华企业利润再投资,而不是同等规模的新资本从德国汇入。这一细节很重要:它说明许多企业选择让中国业务继续为中国业务融资,同时控制总部新增暴露。Destatis Bundesbank

中国还是客户,也是产品经理

对小而专的机械企业,最大风险并不是某年销售下滑,而是失去客户需求的第一手反馈。当中国工厂开始要求更短交期、更高自动化程度和更低总体拥有成本,若德国总部仍只把中国当销售区,这些变化就要经过多层汇报才进入产品路线图。等到总部决定改,竞争者可能已经迭代了两轮。

中国团队的重要性由此上升。他们要判断哪些需求只是本地偏好,哪些会成为全球趋势;还要在价格压力下守住安全、可靠性和生命周期成本这些德国设备的传统优势。中国市场既贡献收入,也像一间高压测试室。

从“卖给中国”到“跟着中国客户出海”

德国商会 2026 年 9 月的《From China to Global》研究显示,越来越多在华德企开始服务正在海外扩张的中国企业。其定性部分基于 11 次访谈,不能代表总体比例,但它指出了一条重要路径:德企可以在中国赢得客户,再跟随客户进入东南亚、中东或欧洲项目。From China to Global

该业务模式要求销售、技术服务与合规体系具备跨境协同能力:合同可能在中国签署,设备在泰国安装,结算由新加坡实体完成,远程诊断则依托德国技术团队。对 Mittelstand 而言,核心约束不在市场机会,而在组织带宽——有限的人才、备件与授权机制必须覆盖多个司法辖区,因此区域化服务枢纽与标准化交付流程比逐国复制完整团队更具可行性。

中国市场正在决定客户往哪里走、产品要多快、服务必须延伸多远。

GMECS 通过行业圆桌、企业考察与会员网络,将分散的技术和市场信息转化为可供总部决策的现场证据。2025 年 11 月的西门子成都数字化工厂考察集中呈现数字孪生、人工智能、5G 与边缘计算在生产线中的系统集成;2026 年 6 月的广州低空经济考察则提供了对中国新一代设备企业、技术路线与商业化进度的直接观察。此类活动的价值不在一般性的“市场潜力”判断,而在于缩短总部与本地产业演进之间的信息距离,并提高投资、合作与产品决策的可验证性。成都考察 广州考察

06 / 08

中国对东盟投资流向:五个主要目的地

2026.06.30静态图表国别比较

同一组国别流量背后,是五种不同的区域功能:总部与资本枢纽、汽车产业链、资源加工,以及电子制造。

新加坡集装箱码头

新加坡集装箱码头。图片:CEphoto, Uwe Aranas / Wikimedia Commons,CC BY-SA 4.0;页面裁切显示。来源与授权

这张柱状图回答的是“资本从中国报表上流向哪里”,而不是“多少工厂搬去了哪里”。2024 年中国对东盟 ODI 为 343.65 亿美元,其中制造业 153.9 亿美元。新加坡以 178.88 亿美元居首,但这笔金额包含金融、批发、商务服务和控股结构,不能被直接解释为实体制造投资。商务部统计公报

国别排名更适合被看作区域分工的入口:新加坡承担资本、总部与区域管理;泰国连接汽车与电动车生态;印度尼西亚连接资源、金属加工和电池链;越南承接电子与多元制造;马来西亚拥有较成熟的半导体与电子基础。金额来自同一套商务部国别流量表,产业解释则依据 ASEAN 投资报告。

ASEAN 统计把 2024 年来自中国的 FDI 记为 193 亿美元。它与中国商务部数字记录的是不同方向、归属和估值口径,因此图中没有把两套数字相减、平均或计算占比。

07 / 08

亚洲制造业版图正在如何变化?

2026.07.22布鲁塞尔 / ASEAN数据新闻

五个数字勾出新的轮廓:东南亚在增长,中国没有消失,欧洲机械制造商同时面对市场与竞争。

上海洋山深水港集装箱码头

上海洋山深水港集装箱码头。图片:Bruno Corpet / Wikimedia Commons,CC BY-SA 3.0;页面裁切显示。来源与授权

ASEAN FDI
$226bn
制造业 FDI
$44bn
中国 ODI→ASEAN
$34.36bn

单一的 FDI 增长指标不足以支持“东南亚正在取代中国”的结论。制造业区位变化需要同时观察产出规模、跨境投资、贸易结构与企业产能配置;这些指标呈现的不是中心被替换,而是既有制造中心与新增区域节点之间的网络化重组。

中国仍是中心,但中心正在向外连接

UNIDO 估算,中国 2024 年占全球制造业产出的 32%;VDMA 统计的机械出口份额中,中国为 20.3%,德国为 14.0%。这两组数据分别衡量制造产出与机械贸易,不能混为一谈,却共同说明中国仍有规模、供应商密度和出口能力。与此同时,中国对东盟 ODI 达 343.65 亿美元,其中制造业 153.9 亿美元。资本向外走,并不自动意味着国内能力同步消失。

东南亚获得的,是新增量也是新分工

ASEAN 2024 年吸收 2260 亿美元 FDI,制造业占 440 亿美元。制造业不是总量里最大的一块,却是增长最突出的板块。汽车、电子、半导体与服装的项目分布在不同国家,使东南亚不再只是“低成本组装地”,而是逐步形成多个有专长的生产节点。UNCTAD / ASEAN

欧洲面对的不是一个更便宜的中国

2025 年中国向欧盟出口的机械产品约 490 亿欧元,同比增长 14.8%;欧盟从中国进口的机械、机械器具及零部件按更宽 HS 口径计为 1065 亿欧元。口径不同,但方向一致:竞争已经进入欧洲市场。到 2026 年第一季度,欧盟对华货物逆差为 980 亿欧元,是 2022 年第三季度以来的季度高点。Eurostat

这迫使德国机械企业同时处理三件事:在中国更快本地化,在东南亚建立服务能力,在欧洲证明高成本设备仍能通过能耗、可靠性和全生命周期成本创造价值。任何一项单独完成都不够。

亚洲制造业的中心仍在,但节点和连接线明显变多了。
08 / 08

循环经济与资源管理——为何是饮料行业决胜未来的关键?

2025.06.13
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企业简介

Company Introduction

德国GEA成立于1881年,专注于机械制造、生产运营、工艺技术、设备组件以及全面的服务组合,是面向食品、饮料、制药等众多领域的全球系统供应商,其五大事业群包含分离和流体技术、液体和粉体工艺技术、食品加工和制药健康技术、牧业科技、制热和制冷技术。GEA以“工程创造美好世界”为目标,我们的愿景: “为营养和制药行业提供可持续的解决方案,确保后代的美好生活。”


1950年代GEA进入中国市场,陆续在上海、北京、广州、香港、台湾等地设立多家分公司及办事机构。目前,GEA中国区跨国公司地区总部位于上海,并有天津和苏州两大多功能生产基地。GEA中国持续为客户提供具备竞争力的解决方案和产品,并佐以全生命周期的本地服务。数十年来,GEA中国紧密伴随着中国经济的增长,为牧业、乳品、食品加工、制药健康、化工、环保、航海等行业领域提供了成千上万种超越客户预期的创新解决方案。


GEA is one of the world’s largest suppliers of systems and components to the food,  beverage and pharmaceutical industries.  The international technology group,  founded in 1881, focuses on machinery  and plants, as well as advanced process technology, components and comprehensive services. The five business divisions including Separation & Flow Technologies, Liquid & Powder Technologies, Food & Healthcare Technologies, Farm Technologies, Heating & Refrigeration Technologies. GEA’s mission "Engineering for a better world", aligns with its mission: " We safeguard future generations by providing sustainable solutions for the nutrition and pharmaceutical industries."


GEA entered the Chinese market as early as the 1950s and established multiple subsidiaries and offices in Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and other locations. Currently, GEA's China headquarters is based in Shanghai,and GEA operates two multi-purpose sites in Tianjin and Suzhou. GEA China continuously provides customers with competitive solutions and products, supported by localized full lifecycle services. For decades, GEA China has closely accompanied the growth of China's economy, offering thousands of innovative solutions that exceed customer expectations across various industries including dairy farming, dairy processing, food processing, pharma & healthcare, chemical, environmental protection, and marine.


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